Laos may lower economy growth forecast to 8%

Business Desk Vientiane Times Publication Date : 10-04-2012

The government of Laos expects to revise the national economic growth forecast for this fiscal year following a slight drop in output in the agriculture and industry sectors. Economists at the Ministry of Planning and Investment say that GDP growth for the 2011-12 fiscal year will be up 8 per cent on last year, but less than the earlier projection of 8.3 per cent. They attribute the drop to a decline in agricultural and industrial productivity. The government had targeted a GDP value of 70,200 billion kip (US$8.8 billion) this fiscal year, representing an 8.3 per cent increase compared to the previous year. Economists unveiled the revised mid-year economic growth forecast at the start of a two-day joint planning and finance meeting in Vientiane yesterday. Minister of Planning and Investment Somdy Duangdy, Minister of Finance Phouphet Khamphounvong and other senior planning and finance officials attended the meeting. The meeting will review the implementation of the national socio-economic development plan for 2011-12 over the past six months and set up a development plan for 2012-13 before submitting it to the National Assembly for approval in June. Economists said agricultural output would see only 2.7 per cent growth this fiscal year, lower than the earlier projection of 3.5 per cent. The decline is due to tropical storms that caused serious flooding and damage to farming production bases in central and southern parts of the country. The tropical storms also adversely affected industry growth, in particular the export of mining products. Economists estimate that the sector will see 13 per cent growth as opposed to the projected growth rate of 16.8 per cent. The main driver of GDP growth this fiscal year is the service sector, which has grown by 8.1 per cent compared to the projected growth rate of 6.7 per cent. According to a report from the Ministry of Planning, tropical storms last year caused 1,393 billion kip worth of damage to agriculture, transport, education, and industry and commerce infrastructure. The government has approved a budget of 135 billion kip and sourced additional funding from local and foreign donors to help Laos recover from the effects of the flooding, with the aim of achieving economic growth of at least 8 per cent. The government admitted that the global economic downturn and the European debt crisis had also affected economic growth over the last six months. Speaking at the opening ceremony of the planning and finance meeting, Mr Somdy said that despite unfavourable internal and external economic conditions, the government had been able to maintain stable economic growth. He said the government had reined in inflation and had collected and disbursed revenue in line with set plans. The World Bank said Laos' GDP growth would be only 7.5 per cent this year, down from the earlier projection of 8 per cent. The bank said the global and regional economic slowdown and natural disasters would put strong pressure on the government to maintain a high rate of GDP growth.